An absolute majority of the Conservative Party is the most likely outcome of Britain's December 12 legislative elections, but it is still possible for voters to decide to keep the parliament divided, poll experts say.
For Ipsos Mori company director Ben Page, the victory of the 'tories' is a consequence of the British 'exhaustion' of the Brexit process and a 'best' choice between two bad party leaders, Boris Johnson and Jeremy. Corbyn.
“It looks like conservatives will win the elections, fueled by general exhaustion. The disagreement over Brexit has exhausted everyone, although the whole process is a total mess. The public got tired and chose the most likely candidate to complete it and also the best among the bad guys, Boris Johnson, ”he told Lusa news agency.
The company's latest opinion poll, released on Friday, points to a 12 percentage point advantage between the 42% Conservative and 32% Labor intentions, while the Liberal Democrats fell to 13% and Brexit Party to 2%.
Other polls have shown larger or smaller differences, between 15% and 6%, but the average has been around 10 points over the four weeks of the campaign since the elections were called in late October, and always with the 'Labor' in second place.
The same Ipsos Mori poll confirms trends from other studies: Britons have a negative image of Prime Minister and Conservative leader Boris Johnson, resulting in a negative -20 rating, but that of Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn is much worse. , from -44.
"The difference is still bigger than between the parties," Vinca Page.
Polling experts have been cautious in forecasting because of errors in the 2017 legislative election, when most polls did not anticipate Jeremy Corbyn's recovery from Theresa May, conservatives losing the absolute majority.
At the time, the only study that predicted a hung parliament was from YouGov, using an innovative method called Multilevel 'regression and poststratification' (MRP), which successfully predicted Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. USA in 2016.
The only poll that applied this methodology to these December 12 legislative elections was published by The Times in late November and generally concluded the same as the other polls, that the Conservative Party will have a comfortable absolute majority.
Academic John Curtice, often described as a "polling guru" due to experience and good repute, said that these elections are being held by the Brexit and that the Conservative Party has managed to concentrate more votes from Eurosceptic voters than Labor from voters. pro-Europeans.
“Conservatives now have 70% of voters voting in favor of leaving, while Labor has only half the vote of those who want to stay (in the European Union). And it is this differential that is absolutely central to the likely outcome of these elections, ”he said at a meeting with foreign journalists.
But he also recalled examples of dramatic turnaround elections, such as in February 1974, when Conservative Prime Minister Edward Heath garnered more votes, but elected three fewer deputies than Labor Harold Wilson.
"Neither the MRP model nor the normal polls tell us what could happen in the coming days, or if things could change," warned Joe Greenwood, a London University of Economics scholar who specializes in public opinion and political participation.
One of the difficulties of electoral predictions in the UK is the First Past the Post system in single-member circles, where victories can be influenced by local factors and decided by few votes.
Experts agree that Boris Johnson is currently heading for an absolute majority of the House of Commons' 650 seats, the proportion of which may vary, but if the Labor Party's margin drops to just 6%, the risk of a divided parliament is bigger.
“The challenge with the British electoral system is that we have no proportional representation. It is possible to get 35% of the votes, like Tony Blair (in 2005) and get a majority, or 36% like David Cameron (in 2010) and not have enough deputies and be forced to form a coalition, ”Ben Page told Lusa.
. (tagsToTranslate) October