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Marques Mendes: "The Later Centeno Leave [do Governo] worse for him "

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Marques Mendes: "The Later Centeno Leave [do Governo] worse for him "

  1. But OE lacks the PM mark. Missing a course, a strategic goal, a cause. Hardly or well, the contraption's budgets had one direction – the direction of income recovery. This one has no course – it runs out of the right accounts. The rest is sight navigation. It's all loose. Let's exemplify:
  2. This could be the SO of supporting business to boost growth. But it is not. It has specific and positive measures for SMEs. But it's a little bit. It is not a policy, nor does it solve the problem.
  3. It could also be the SO of social cohesion and the fight against social inequalities. But it is not. There are some positive measures. But they are punctual. They have no ambition or make a difference.
  4. Or it could be the EO of territorial cohesion, inland development or birth promotion. But it is not.
  1. In conclusion: this SO is a conglomerate of small measures without a direction and without a strategy. Measures to obtain the PAN vote; others for the vote of the PSD / Madeira; one or the other for the vote of the CFP and BE. All tactical. Nothing strategic. A certain disappointment.

PCP AND BE APPROVE THE BUDGET?

  1. If the policy has any logic, PCP and BE can only abstain:
  2. If they vote in favor, they make two mistakes: first, they prolong the contraption that is formally over; second, even larger, they approve a budget surplus. If approving the deficit reduction already meant swallowing some frogs, approving a surplus is swallowing an elephant;
  3. If they vote against, no one will understand them. Moving from past approval to present rejection is going from 8 to 80. Nevertheless, this SO has a lot of continuity.
  1. One thing is certain: if this SO is approved only by PAN, Livre and PSD / Madeira, it is a poor approval. It is an arithmetic approval but not a political approval. In this sense it will be a defeat of the Government that greatly limits its future.
  1. As for the PSD, the hesitation is not noticed. I should have already announced the vote against. Increasing the tax burden is enough for the PSD to consistently vote against. It is these hesitations that undermine the opposition of the PSD. Sounds like an ally of the government.

MORE TAX LOAD. WHY?

More tax burden has, in my view, a political cause and an economic consequence.

  1. The political cause is the lack of opposition. If there was opposition, the government was frightened by this constant increase in the tax burden. It chilled the way. Only PSD and CDS are not opposition. They leave the government on the loose. Therefore, the Government is riding the wave of the tax burden. Bad for the country, bad for democracy.
  1. Then the economic consequence. The country does not grow as much as it could grow. High taxes on IRC and IRS do not favor investment, growth and wealth creation. Let's look at the example of three EU countries that grow more economically than Portugal:
  2. IRS (Maximum Rate)
  • Czech Republic – 15%
  • Poland – 32%
  • Slovakia – 25%
  • PORTUGAL – 48%
  1. IRC (maximum rate)
  • Czech Republic – 19%
  • Poland – 19%
  • Slovakia – 21%
  • PORTUGAL – 31.5% (including state and municipal spills)
  1. These countries grow more than Portugal. More than that: the Czech Republic and Slovakia have surpassed it in recent years in per capita GDP. Poland, by the pace of growth it takes, is 2, 3 years past us.

THE EXIT OF HUNDRED

  1. In an interview with Expresso, for the first time the MF admits the departure of the Government. Not surprising to me. Since July I say that Centeno would enter a second PS government to leave shortly after. A term minister.
  1. Today, I add: the later Centeno comes out worse for him:
  2. First, you have nothing more to achieve. After ending the deficit and conquering a surplus already has its place in history;
  3. Second, it is more and more a problem factor than a solution factor. It was once a political and electoral asset. Now it's increasingly a nightmare for your colleagues and even for PS.
  4. Third, internally it will be increasingly challenged and weakened, even for an essential reason – it has long been on a collision course with the PM.
  1. If you leave next year, you will surely go to Governor of Banco de Portugal. This is not a fantastic solution for anyone who has ever wanted to be European Commissioner and Managing Director of the IMF. But that's what there is! Later the drama may be bigger. There are not many relevant positions available in and out of 2020.

Health PPPs

  1. From 2021 ends the PPP Hospital of Vila Franca de Xira. However, in an audit released this week, the Court of Auditors says: the production of health care under this PPP allowed the state to save, between 2013 and 2017, 30 million euros compared to what would be the same production in a hospital with public management. Therefore, we ask:
  2. So the state saves money on this PPP, mayors publicly praise it (including PS mayors), are the services provided considered of quality, and yet does the government end this PPP?
  3. What is the rationality of this decision? Why is ideological dogmatism stronger than political, financial and social wisdom?
  1. Another example – the Braga hospital. At Braga's PPP, which ended in September, the last annual value of its contract with the state was 152 million euros. This week the new President of the Hospital CA (now in public management) announced that the state will provide the hospital with 200 million euros (interview to Correio da Minho).
  • That is: with the end of the PPP, the state is already spending another 50 million euros. It is an increase of about 32%.
  • Is it logical to end up with a cheaper solution that works well to impose a more expensive solution on the public purse?
  1. Finally, the internal social peace. The two medical unions (SIM and the South Zone Union) have just made a labor agreement with PPP Loures. As before, in Braga and Vila Franca de Xira. In public management is more difficult.

2019 BALANCE SHEET

(by voting of viewers)

  1. NATIONAL FIGURE OF THE YEAR
  • The winner is Tolentino de Mendonça (70%), the newly appointed Portuguese cardinal, who had a meteoric rise in Rome and who has a great influence on the Pope.
  • In 2nd place was Antonio Costa.
  • In 3rd place was Elisa Ferreira.
  1. SURPRISE POLICY OF THE YEAR
  • The winner is André Ventura (with79%). Not surprising. It has shaken, and in what way, the media agenda. And you can thank Ferro Rodrigues for the help he received from PAR.
  • In 2nd place was Cotrim de Figueiredo.
  • In 3rd place was Joacine Katar Moreira.
  1. INTERNATIONAL FIGURE OF THE YEAR
  • The winner is Boris Johnson (with 45%). One can understand, especially in the face of the resounding electoral victory it had last week. But if I had to choose, I would choose Greta Thunberg. It's my working environmentalist "rib".
  • In 2nd place was Ursula von der Leyen.
  • In 3rd place was Greta Thunberg.
  1. SPORT FIGURE OF THE YEAR
  • The winner is Jorge Jesus (with 62%). A fair and undisputed victory. Rewards a big year for the Portuguese coach.
  • In 2nd place was João Félix.
  • In 3rd place was Fernando Santos.

  1. NATIONAL EVENT OF THE YEAR
  • The winner is "Chaos in Health" (with 67%). The decision is understood. This is a great case from the political, media and social point of view.
  • In 2nd place was "The Truckers' Protest".
  • In 3rd place was "The Balance of Public Accounts".
  1. INTERNATIONAL EVENT OF THE YEAR
  • The winner is "Brexit" (with 49%). It was practically inevitable and relatively predictable.
  • In second place was the case of the "Protests in Hong Kong".
  • In 3rd place was "The Crisis of Catalonia".

. (tagsToTranslate) Budget (t) Mário Centeno (t) Luís Marques Mendes

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