- According to the TC, because of this situation, ADSE will be in deficit as early as 2020 (deficit of 17 million); the accumulated surpluses until 2019 (535 million) will be exhausted by 2026; and ADSE will run out of money to meet the expenses of its beneficiaries.
- This is very serious. Government inaction can kill one of the best health subsystems we have.
- There is only one solution left: take action, act quickly and follow TC recommendations. This audit is serious work and must be respected.
GOVERNMENT PROGRAM DEBATE
In a weak debate, how were the various protagonists?
- António Costa – You were not particularly happy.
- He didn't answer or carelessly answered Rio. He had a coffee talk when Rui Rio's questions were pertinent and legitimate.
- It did not do well in relation to PCP and BE. The threatening tone he used is yet another sign of fear and concern about the future.
- And overall, the Government has shown unacceptable self-conviction. Speak as if you have the absolute majority. Want to charge everything from others without giving anything in return. This self-convincing can only screw up.
- PCP and BE – They are at a crossroads. They have not yet decided whether they are opposition or will be informal allies of the Government. Nevertheless, there are differences: BE is more disturbed and its relationship with the Government will always be very difficult; The PCP is more relaxed and will have a more constructive relationship with the Government, even helping, by abstention, to make budgets viable.
- PSD – Rui Rio was at a good level. It had merit and a sense of opportunity. The most difficult time will be when, after the direct, with Rio, Montenegro or Pinto Luz in the lead, the PSD has to decide two things: first, if it has openness to agreements with the PS; second, whether it will be available to enable budgets. The first budget will be approved on the left. But as for the second and third, the government will be tempted to turn to the PSD and Costa "prays" for Rio to be there.
- CDS – The CDS has been deleted. Despite the good performance of Cecilia Meireles. One thing is certain: Chega and IL will be a serious problem for CDS.
- New parties – In this debut the new parties were not impressed. They need time. Even so, it is clear that Livre has a problem – difficulty in getting the message across. Mrs Joacine Moreira has a lot of merit in the election and deserves admiration for her career. But Parliament is the stage of oratory. Without communication power the message does not pass.
THE EXIT OF HUNDRED
- Mário Centeno is on a collision course with the PM. He was demoted, did not speak in the debate and is leaving. Either it leaves in 2020 or in 2021. This will no longer be news. The big news may be who will replace it.
- There are basically two hypotheses – an internal solution and an external solution:
- Internal (and most likely) solution – If the path is an internal solution, the choice will be Mourinho Félix. It is a natural choice. It is number two in finance. It is Centeno's replacement. It is the Government representative in the Eurogroup.
- External (and less likely) solution – a surprise that is secretly spoken in a restricted circle behind the scenes of the PS) – That surprise would be Fernando Medina – the Mayor of Lisbon. Medina would leave the municipality and became part of the government in a very important position.
- Why Fernando Medina?
- Because of the succession in PS. This is the last government of Costa that, at the end of the legislature, wants to head to Brussels for a European post.
- Well, Fernando Medina has always been the anthem of Antonio Costa. That's who the PM liked to see as his successor. But being mayor can be short. Not forgetting that the next municipalities have risks for the PS. So bringing Medina to the government would be doing "two in one" – reinforcing Medina's status and avoiding the risks of an election.
- But the idea has three problems: first, Medina's succession in the House (number 2 is not from the PS); second, with the eventual defeat of the PS in the local authorities, the socialists were to blame Costa and Medina (it is a risk); Third, it was obvious that the PM was intruding on the succession process. And that always messes up. See what happened when Barroso chose Santana Lopes to succeed him.
The Socrates Inquiry
- In Socrates there are two distinct but complementary sides: the judicial side and the political side. The judicial side of the matter is the most talked about. But on this we have to await the court decisions.
- Now, on the political side, there are two important issues:
- First question: Socrates has a difficult relationship with the truth. In this plan is Ricardo Salgado's soul mate. Later this week he proved it again when he said he did not want Stick to CGD and was even bothered by this appointment. This is Socrates at its worst. Only he believes.
- Second question: Socrates repeated to exhaustion this week that he wants to restore the truth. So you should start by explaining to the Portuguese these questions:
- First, why, when you left the government and went to study in Paris, did you explain that you borrowed from CGD and hid that you also lived off a friend's borrowed money?
- Second, why did she live in Paris when she had no income of her own and lived on borrowed money?
- Third, why did you receive cash from your friend Carlos Santos Silva, in envelopes and not by bank transfer, as usual?
- Fourth: Why, even though at one point I had a monthly salary of € 12,500, did you think that this was not enough to study in Paris? Is this compatible with someone who calls himself a leftist man?
- As long as there are no explanations, Socrates is suspicious. Not just criminally suspicious. It is also politically suspicious. I suspect it is untrue and very sly.
ELECTIONS IN SPAIN
- In a week's time we have elections in Spain – it's the fourth election in just four years. And from what is known from the polls, Spain is striding towards a new ungovernability.
- First of all, these elections are clearly influenced by events in Catalonia. And this influence is resulting in a clear reinforcement of the right and the extreme right. Let's see:
- The PSOE dragged the country into elections in search of an absolute majority. Objective failed. It will stay away from the majority and may even vote down.
- PP is one of the major beneficiaries of the seizure in Spain. Bad result in April. Now it will go up a lot. It can reach 100 deputies.
- Ciudadanos, after April, did not want agreements with the PSOE to lead the right. After all, will have a brutal fall and will move to 5th place.
- We can, following the downward trend on the left, will probably lower the previous result.
- Finally, the VOX – the surprise of surprises. It is rising exponentially and could move to 3rd party with over 40 members. It benefits from the Catalonia effect and the controversy of Franco's exhumation.
- In conclusion: the left loses strength, the right and the extreme right grow and the political blockade persists. Bad news for Spain and for Portugal.
(tagsToTranslate) Marques Mendes (t) Centeno (t) Fernando Medina