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Costa's public investment should only match Passos 2020

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Costa's public investment should only match Passos 2020

The weight of public investment forecast by the former PS Government for 2019 has been revised downwards, failing the initial forecast and thus falling below last year's level of the PSD / CDS Executive. According to figures from the EO 2020 report, it is only in 2020 that public investment, as a percentage of GDP, will reach the 2015 level. The discussion around public investment is contagious by successive revisions of the figures that make it difficult to make comparisons between the budgeted at various times and what is eventually executed. Let us first look at the evolution of the public investment ratio in the Portuguese economy. After reaching a minimum of at least 22 years in 2016 at 1.5% of GDP, public investment rebounded to 1.8% in 2017 and then to 1.9% in 2018. Although initially forecasted To reach 2.3% by 2019 – the 2015 level – the Government is now revising this estimate down to 1.9%, ie maintaining the same level as last year. Thus, it is not until 2020 that the current Executive forecasts that public investment will correspond to 2.3% of GDP.

This measure of weight in the economy allows comparing different years. However, it is important to note that nominal public investment is expected to exceed slightly by 2019 (€ 4,098 million) compared to 2015 (€ 4,045 million).

Still, the government doesn't look good on photography when comparing it to face value. Estimated public investment for 2019 only increased by 273 million euros over the previous year, a growth of 6.7%, well below the 17.1% forecast in OE 2019.

However, it should be noted that perhaps the change in the national accounts base made this year by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) may be to some extent influencing these percentage comparisons. In addition, downward revisions by the Government itself over previous years mean that the basis of comparison is not the same at different times, implying that the implied variation changes in magnitude.

Still, the amount the Executive has proposed to execute from 4,853 million euros for 2019 remains almost 800 million euros from the actual execution. Only by 2020 can the nominal value reach this level: the Government proposes to implement € 4,998 million, € 900 million more than this year, which will be the largest nominal increase since 2010. .

. (tagsToTranslate) Public Investment (t) State Budget 2020 (t) SO 2020 (t) António Costa (t) Pedro Passos Coelho (t) Investment

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