Within two days of the parliamentary elections, CNBC outlined Portugal's economic profile, wondering how long the country's economic recovery will last, at a time when a new political cycle is about to begin. "Portugal – usually described as a success story in the Eurozone after major austerity measures following the sovereign debt crisis – is enjoying its growth above the region's average values in the last two years," she wrote. "However, its recent economic recovery is strongly supported by high levels of exports – something that could become a problem given the worldwide trade disputes." In 2010, before the bailout request to the Fund International Monetary Fund and the European Union, Portugal exported a total of 37.3 billion euros. From then on, the level of exports has increased almost every year, reaching around 58 billion in 2018, according to preliminary data from Pordata.
Currently, exports represent 40% of Portuguese economic growth, when in 2010 it was not 30%.
"Portugal is more exposed (to global trade) now than before the crisis," Ana Andrade, an analyst at the Financial Intelligence Unit, told CNBC, adding that "the percentage of exports has grown. Portugal is (now) more integrated into the global trading system ".
Also Michiel van der Veen, economist at Rabo Research, told the American television station that "a stronger than expected global and European slowdown could expose the underlying macroeconomic imbalances (from Portugal)."
It seems almost certain that the Socialist Party will be the winner of the next legislative elections next Sunday, October 6, according to polls. The big question is whether party leader Antonio Costa will get the absolute majority.
Business averaged polls published during the election campaign (not including the ICS-iSCTE study) and concluded that the PS leads with 36.7% of voting intentions, followed by the PSD (27.5%), Left Block (9.7%), CDU (7.1%), CDS (4.7%) and PAN (4%).
"To meet budget targets, Costa will depend on economic growth," continued van der Veen. "However, growth may find it difficult to keep pace as the US-China trade war kicks in and the Eurozone economy slows down," he said.
. (tagsToTranslate) CNBC (t) Portugal (t) elections (t) exports (t) economy